Last night I attended a talk at Chatham House where His Excellency Vaclav Klaus, the President of the Czech Republic, faced-off with Professor Robert Watson of the UK government’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. I, like everyone in the room, walked in with a pretty fixed set of ideas, none of which have changed spectacularly. Which is the problem with such debates; His Excellency is quite correct when he says that Environmentalism is an ideology, but he gets it wrong in the discussion of where that ideology is placed in the risk analysis of climate change.
Klaus’ argument is constructed on six points:
- The increase in global temperature is very small to negligible.
- The IPCC data on climate change is highly speculative. Real data is not at all alarming.
- There is no consensus on whether Climate Change is man-made or natural.
- When the issue is viewed in economic terms, the cost benefit analysis is not worth the action.
- De-industrialization would be a bad idea, as industrialization is historically connected to freedom and the free market. Government intervention could be catastrophic: government failure is always more dangerous than market failure.
- Climate change issues are a luxury that we in the wealthy global north can afford, but in the global south the world’s poor must be allowed to industrialize as we in the north did, with all its necessary pollutants.
The answer to it all is that people should just “take it easy” and not get excited about this silly idea of climate change.
Vaclav Klaus claimed Environmentalism had become a pseudo-religious ideology, and must be taken for that. This ideology has elements of that of the communism that he and his country struggled against for decades. Klaus’ main point was that environmentalism is a threat to democracy and freedom, and should be fought like threats to democracy and freedom.
None of these are particularly new points, but the case made was interesting. The comparison between Soviet communism and environmentalism is a severe challenge. A challenge that I disagree with.
His first three points about the actual data were comprehensibly refuted by Professor Watson. IPCC and the scientific community have as much a consensus as is needed in any other institution would need to bring about change. The moderator of the event, the BBCs Environmental Analyst Roger Harrabin, quoted a recent poll of scientists where only 18% say the IPCC data is overstated. That compared to 17% that claim the case is severely understated, let alone the 68% who agreed with the data. However, for the sake of discussion, I’ll accept that the data is still in contest.
His forth point was that when viewed in economic terms climate change does not stand up to cost-benefit analysis. The Stern Report last year was pretty conclusive on the subject: pay now and save a lot of money later. The Stern Report is in dispute, and those who dispute it in the UK say that the numbers are too soft. However, that aside, what I don’t understand is what is the problem with developing low carbon technology? The cost-benefit analysis of walking on the moon was plain stupid, but that happened and we’re pretty pleased about it. The cost-benefit analysis of the Iraq war is disgraceful, and yet…
In economic terms, expanding the energy market beyond Exxon to include new technologies that reduce waste and process materials more efficiently is, I think, a pretty good idea. Even without Climate Change. Weening ourselves off non-renewable cheap energy supplies means when those cheap materials become more expensive or politically challenging to acquire, our economy doesn’t suffer.
Klaus’ fifth point: Industrialization has been historically linked to the use of cheap fossil fuels. Industrialization has also lead to the expansion of the middle class and of our contemporary understanding of social freedom. Such can also be said of the Steam Engine and the French Revolution. I don’t think we need less industrialized nations to mimic our footsteps directly. Industrialization has been linked to fossil fuels because it first occurred in nations where there was an abundance of coal. Now it is happening in a place where there is often an abundant source of other energy: sunlight.
Furthermore, nobody is saying de-industrialize. The environmentalism movement, like any, has many forms, but most simply want our environment to factor into investment and development in technology. There is no turning back the clock on technology. We aren’t going back to a world of horse power and ox drawn ploughs. Expand the energy market to take advantage of solar, wind and tide/wave power. Make cars more efficient. Use as much energy from non-renewables as you can. Don’t just belch it into the air.
What is the problem with this? The anecdote is of the circuit-board maker who, in the face of the global ban of CFCs (because of that conveniently oft forgotten man made hole in the Ozone Layer) said they could not properly clean their circuit-boards in the production process without the use of CFCs. Why are your circuit-boards dirty in the first place? Now, having adapted to the ban, their costs have minimalized and their production technique has become more efficient, and more profitable. This is free market solutions, not communism.
The last point is bizarre, but still often used. The North/South Divide, and the luxury of being environmentally friendly. This is plain silly. What would I rather send to the equatorial region of Africa: a 40′ tank of petrol or a 40′ container full of solar panels? Hmmm. One is a long term solution that allows the obvious energy source to be converted locally and instantly consumed, and with good maintanence will not run out. The other develops a dependency on: oil (at $96/barrel) production, transportation, refinement, transportation of the refined product and the consumption and maintanence of the process in between and it runs out. An electric motor has a fraction of the working parts of a combustion motor.
The most important point is not refuting the reasons for why Mr. Klaus things Environmentalism is the new Communism. It is that Environmentalism is not the new Communism. Klaus infers that Environmentalism is government driven and therefor a step toward authoritarianism. On this, I wholeheartedly disagree. Governments have been incredibly slow at taking this issue up. This is a movement that has been developed by citizens.
He has it completely backward, it is a completely democratic movement where people have stood up and made the government and the business elite take notice: this isn’t good enough. People the world over are recycling, they are doing their part to better their world. It is not about the state, carpooling is not a nod to a flag. It is a realization that we are a part of something, and it is precious. It is democratic, it is the one place where citizens feel any sort of belonging.
President Klaus is not a stupid man, so I have to wonder why he takes such an extreme position on the climate change movement. My first reaction is that he is an opportunist capitalizing on the quick publicity that controversy brings. Perhaps he is just not that clued-up on what people think about this subject.
Vaclav Klaus was pretty near laughed out of the room. Not on purpose, judging by the confusion (indeed, my own confusion too) most everyone in the crowd was interested in what the esteemed president had to say and got this recycled bullshit. If he had an interesting or worth point to contribute, then most were intrigued to hear it. In the ensuing question an answer period, his framework did not, could not, keep itself coherent. Climate change skeptics were the first to rush to ask questions in support of the President. But as the room heard more dubious debate, they turned. What is wrong with a universal feeling among the people that: “something must be done” to slow climate change.
And more importantly, as one questioner asked: “how can we hold you accountable for your political decisions in twenty years if what you say is incorrect?” His Excellency the President of the Czech Republic answered this question by saying that the IPCC is full of crap. Thats not good enough for me.