Posted by: Sam Carson | 12 January, 2007

Does Bush want a fresh new war?

Glenn Greenwald at Unclaimed Territory  and Consortium News have put forward a compelling argument that Kaiser Bush is saddling up for an expedition into Iran.

This idea seems to be floating around the Blogosphere for a few days now. Until now I’ve dismissed it as blogland’s desire to create showstopper headlines. Greenwald is a smart cookie thought, and the evidence Consortium News present are worth paying attention to.

The first thing Greenwald notes is the rather unusual trend of accidentally mentioning Israeli nukes. The faux pas of the age has become the slip-up of the moment, as both newbie US minister of war Robert Gates and the Israeli armchair hawk Prime Minister Olmert both drop it into conversation… accidentally.

Then come the buildups, pushing new forces into the region including a nuclear sub in the straits of Homuz and the 21,500 new troops announced the other night. Israeli war plans are leaked to the London Times and published last weekend.

Consortium News also points to Bush firing opposition in the War Room:

On Jan. 4, Bush ousted the top two commanders in the Middle East, Generals John Abizaid and George Casey, who had opposed a military escalation in Iraq. Bush also removed Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, who had stood by intelligence estimates downplaying the near-term threat from Iran’s nuclear program.

No Bush strategy would be complete without a new wave of rhetoric.

“We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria,” Bush said. “And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq.” (Consortium News)

There is no question this is folly. It seems that Bush won’t stop until there are flames raging from Syria to Afghanistan. He simply does not have the troops for this kind of expedition. Its too far away, too foreign, for American operations to stick.

It is also unlikely that many allies will step up this time. Tony Blair is months away from leaving office, and I don’t think that Gordon Brown will extend military operations, they are far too unpopular to define the beginning of his time in office.

Canada will be having elections soon, and Canadians haven’t been thrilled at the sight of Canadian Forces Coffins coming home from Afghanistan. Harper can’t be seen as a poodle, and the Liberals won’t have time for this.

Israel has been called the ally of choice for this invasion. This is a little unbelievable. A nation of six million people? Someone has to stay home and keep the country running… and defended. An Israeli invasion of this scale would inflame the entire Muslim world.

There has been rhetoric over Iran before, this must be yet another example of calculated posturing by the US. The rhetoric is to get some leverage over Iran to get them to fall a little closer to US expectations. This surge is to tie the war over until Bush leaves power, so he doesn’t have to admit he is wrong. The next president can pull back troops. Bush doesn’t want to have to admit his presidency defining expedition was a complete and utter failure.


  1. Froomkin makes the same point, among others …

    After more than a month of frenzied anticipation, President Bush’s speech last night was such a limp letdown — with the notable exception of provocative, bellicose words aimed at Iran and Syria — that it raises the question: What is he really up to?

    Could his secret goal be to run out the clock, and leave Iraq to his successor? Might he be setting the stage for an exit on his terms — giving the Iraqis one last chance, and if they blow it, then he withdraws? Is it even possible that he is beginning the process of shifting the attention of the military — and the American public — from Iraq to Iran?

  2. of course bush wants war..That is the new world order agenda

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